Projected Total Sales of Sundance Direct Sales Essay

IntroductionBillboards, signage and eye-catching advertisement paraphernalia of different withdraw selling companies ar sprouting everywhere, either local or international. numerous companies established names and compete to prolong their standing in the logical argument world. Defined in businessdictionary.com, direct selling is a mettle to face presentation, demonstration, and sale of products or services, usually at the home or character of a prospect by the independent direct sales representatives. straightaway selling contributes greatly on the economic development of the country it manifests the Filipino spirit of enterprise and self-reliance. This effort gains greater popularity today than its early course of instructions. one and only(a) of the popular direct selling companies in the Philippines is Sundance mastermind gross sales (Foo iirks merchandising Corporation). It was established on August 1999. Before they came with the business name, they first concept o f fancy Italian names but they had decided on an accepted and easily remembered name- SUNDANCE. It was originated from the Hollywood movie, Butch Casedy and the Sundance Kid. Mr. Peter Yu is the managing director of Sundance Direct Sales.It is a fashion clothing and shoe retailing play along with wide expertness in manufacturing industry. This company is engaged in selling of clothes, shoes, bags, cosmetics, accessories and infant and children creeses. Currently, it is partnered with Maybelline radical York, Afficionado and I2I eyewear. In its 12 successful years of existence, it has approximately 500,000 dealers and continuously increasing. It produced 16 branches and 400 local outlets nationwide.The mission of Sundance Direct Sales in part fellowmen is to bring standard of excellence to all parts of the world. In posture of their mission, they have reached and served international countries such as HongKong, Dubai, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Abu Dhabi, Singapore.Sundance Direct S ales is an industry that continuously progressing, competing and creating new styles of fashion, awarding them as the Best Direct Selling brand of App bel.MethodologyMany business organizations used tools or techniques, corresponding quantitative forecasting, that helped them determine the possible result of the business operation in the future. Quantitative forecasting technique bases its forecast from past info. This tool helps the motorcoach or the decision maker to accomplish their organizational goals. Specifically, if a company has the record of its past 30-year sales, then it gutter project the sales for the coterminous year and this may help him to determine the inventory levels, scheduling of achievement and the like.However either quantitatively or qualitatively, forecasting is non blow% certain it has uncertainties so we need to measure the verity of the forecast. Forecast accuracy can be measure by MAD (mean absolute deviation) MSE (mean straightforwardly error ) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) the best model depends on the measure. The goal of this field of operation is to project the total sales for one of the Sundance branches Calamba -2011 so that the branch theater director can have preparations in their inventory levels.In order to reach the projected total sales of Sundance Direct Sales Calamba branch in 2011, time-series regression and smoothing linear shortens were used. Time-series regression is the process of estimating the relationship between two variables- in our case time and sales per month. Smoothing linear trends is just the akin with simple smoothing however the intercept and the slope of the trend line be continually adjusted in each period. Two methods were used for comparative degree purposes. The data were also tested for occurrence of seasonality. MAD was used to approximate the forecast accuracy since most of the errors were too stupendous. It weighted the errors equally. MSE is non better(pred icate) for this kind of problem because it will result to a very large number.The data collected was a 3-year monthly sales of the Sundance Direct Sales Calamba branch for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. The sales representative allowed the author to have the data with proper and legal consent. A hard copy of the data is transfer down to the author (Appendix A).To analyze the data for occurrence of seasonality, the data were graphed first. In figure 1 is an illustration of the comparison of the sales in the cardinal years of operation of Sundance Direct Sales CALAMBA.Figure 1.Monthly Sales of Sundance Direct Sales Calamba in 2008, 2009 and 2010.Seasonal time series repeats over a specific period such as day, monthly, quarterly or yearly. fit in to Levin, to determine seasonality two questions must be satisfied. First, are the peaks and troughs consistent? looking back to Figure 1, in that respect are peaks and troughs in year 2009 and year 2010 that are consistent but if you l ook at year 2008 it did not follow those peak and troughs. Second, there is an explanation for the seasonal pattern? Since there is no consistency in the trends of the data points, then we will not answer this question anymore. Both questions were not satisfied so we can say that the data didnt exhibit seasonality. We can now die in forecasting the sales using the two methods mentioned earlier.Forecasting models are evaluated by dividing the samples into two parts warm-up samples and forecast samples. Warm-up samples are used to fit the forecasting model while forecast samples are for testing the model. In a long time series, data are divided into half.Using time-series regression, warm-up samples periods 1-18 was used to get the equation the best-fitting trend line. Using the data in Appendix B, it was determined that the equation for the best-fitted line is Ft = 2340883.46 + 3800.51(t) .